Globalization will be victory over Donald Trump

Happy Sunday. April 2 – or “Freedom Day”, because Donald Trump appointed it – inevitable. US trading partners will soon reveal how the president’s “mutual” tariff plan looks.

Deglobalising is a high fear of a world. With the trade and national security doctrine of global goods, many are very concerned that many Trump tariffs may have violated the back of the globalization.

Thus, I went to search for counter-evidence for the dialect of this week. Behold, Trump 2.0 will not have a fatal blow to international trade.

First, the importance of US global trade is overshabited because it is the world’s largest economy. America is only 13 percent of the import of global goods – closely lower than five years ago. This has a significant impact on the largest importer and trade samples, but not enough to reverse itself.

For measurement, Simon Even, a professor in the IMD Working School recently recently became helpful experience of thinking. He found the United States even if smooth The import of goods, 70 trading partners will fully organize the lost sales in the United States and 115 will be working in five years and assume that the current export growth is taken to other markets.

The United States is not the main driver of global trade growth. Europe – China – China – are greater contributions. In both economic forces and a strategist in Deutsche banking research, Malzia Sachdeva’s latest analysis, as well as economic forces and economic forces are likely to be protected.

China, “New quality productive forces”, President Xi Jinping should provide raw material entrances (thus its pipeline and road initiative) and global markets to support the growth strategy. Beijing, as the protection of the US ramps, has already spoken the need for “resist the compounds.”

Again, the US-China Trade War is a world trade trade between the whole hubb, and the world trade trade between the two About 2.6 percent.

The EU also plays a more important role in driving global trade – it will probably grow. The trade remains the center for the European project. The block is likely to improve the control of management management as the block increases the defense and economic integration efforts of the trump. Brussels also recognizes the importance of being pragmatic in trade with China, taking into account its ambitions to shoot trade and Tech Curve. (Eg using Intellectual Property Transfer To move to Europe as a condition for China.)

Growth in global trade in Europe and China, Southeast Asia, East Asia and the Middle East is expected to increase in global trade. DHL Trade Atlas.

Next, governments try to monitor the strength of the National Supply Chain in Ukraine in Ukraine, and after the war, they want to watch the war in Azerbaijan. Most nations are aware of the resource restrictions (especially small and developing nations, small and developing nations, which are unable to provide trade without trade.

“As the United States is withdrawn from the global stage, other governments will want to replace the loss of imports with potential sales and new deals,” he said.

Bilateral and multilateral trade talks are underway outside the United States. Recently, EU and Mercosur and Australia and UAE contracts reached. The EU, Gulf Cooperation Council, England and India, are all different deals between goods, services and investment.

Importance of other trade regions and perspectives, Steven Altman, DHL Trade Atlasılı Steven Altman, a resistant study scholar to continue a worst scenario of US tariffs

The full application of the tariffs offered during the Trump campaign can reduce the volume of global goods against the United States in a long time to reduce the volumes of global goods against the United States. However, the negative scenario still provides for about 5 percent more global trade in 2029 in 2029 in 2029. This allows you to slow down the growth of the US tariffs to cancel global trade over time.

Sure but not historical rise Global trade trade Does it slain anymore? Can a worst tariff scenario worsen this trend?

What is important why Slow down in the first place. A factor is geopolitics. Active manager PGIM argues This globalization included “Binary Track Era”. Artificial intelligence finds a deglobalization in items with national security effects such as high-level semiconductors, critical minerals and military technology. (This involves media and political attention.)

However, outside the limeight, it finds high-speed globalization for goods and services that consider the rest 75 percent Global GDP. This includes professional and IT services, entertainment, consumer electronics and luxury goods.

Nevertheless, the importance of trade in the global economy ebbed and flowed throughout history. The elasticity of trade to the world GDP is waved in geopolitical periods affecting the national debates on the protection of industry and employees. But there is a way to confirm economic reality; The goods trade rises over time.

The effectiveness of the world in the world is a cheaper, higher quality or simply a physical inefficient entry and the logic of inefficient work and industry that provides the import of products (a profit in the global market).

The reverse connection between the globalization index is a measure of inflation in the size of economic, social and political measures of globalization – and developed economies.

Thus, the governments once once built strong national opportunities and critical areas, economic justification will end. After all, the definition of critical areas is dynamic.

“Protectionism and periods, but the main structural force of comparative advantage, especially in both goods and services, created a new balance of balance, especially in both goods and services.

It is difficult to see that the current “double track ERA” of the Trump’s tariff attack will be more than a little more in the current “double track era” in the long run.

As soon as the US President may even understand the inflation policy (as I researched) Last week’s newsletter). The import replacement is ten years long. (US producers will take time to move to internal supply chains; imports will not fall immediately.) Political periods are shorter.

The last questionnaire of the Cato Institute and Yogov looked at 40% of American voters to the main issue of inflation. Only 1 percent globalization and trade were recorded.

Like the cell, globalization is more than trades only in the goods directed by Trump (so far). Trade Commercial services – Business, finance and ICT, which has been commercial in 1990, has increased twice. Rising digital trading is a component of this and the AI ​​services are expected to rise faster as it increases.

The flow of services and data flow is now playful in the global economy (especially the goods consumed more of the goods produced by developing nations), notes in the McKinsey report The future of trade. In addition, I think that the net and new technology can leak global trade. (For example, electric vehicles need less mechanical parts than those with internal combustion engine.

In general, it is difficult to see Trump tariffs that cause a continuous deglobalization in trade.

Of course, there are more extensive dimensions of globalization to assess as immigration and capital flow. But even DHL’s global connection index The trade, capital, information and humans have increased in a period when all international currents encounter between 2019 and 2024 and Deglobalization.

This does not mean that aggressive protection of the world’s largest economy is harmful to the world economy. This. However, it is best welcomed by more free trade. Indeed, in all forms of time, the economic motive behind globalization gives the power to stay emergency.

Refute me and send your thoughts freelunch@ft.com or x @ TeamPperikh90.

Food for thinking

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