How real is the risk of nuclear war?

The latest Indian-Pakistan was stand-off, ultimatum, red buttons.

The period of military revenge, coated signals and rapid international mediation and woke the most dangerous shade of the region silently. The crisis did not spirals towards the nuclear war, but here was to remind the performance how often the play could be tense.

Even scientists can easily open that nothing can be opened. Scientists opened with a 2019 study by a global group nightmare scenario Where a terrorist In 2025, the attack on India’s parliament leads to a nuclear exchange with Pakistan.

Six years later, a Real-World Stand-Off – If there is an A ceasefire with a US-broker Saturday – the vibration of a complete blown conflict. The fragile stability in the region also revived the concerns of how fragile stability.

As the crisis increases, Pakistan sent “double signals” – when the National Command Organization (NCA) meeting, while declaring a calculated reminder, the military controls the control and potential use of the country’s nuclear arsenal. Whether this action is a symbolic, strategic or real warning, we will never know. Also, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio came as steps to give up the spiral.

President Trump said the United States did not only have a ceasefire regime not broker – “Nuclear Conflict”. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an address on Monday, “(Available) No intolerance for nuclear blackmailOpen India will not be feared with nuclear threats.

“Any terrorist operating under this excuse will face accurate and decisive strikes in a safe shelter,” he said.

India and Pakistan Each has about 170 nuclear weaponsAccording to the Tank Tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Since January 2024, SIPRI estimated that there were 12,121 nuclear heads in the world. About 9,585 of them, military shareholders, 3904 are actively placed and more than 60 compared to the previous year. The United States and Russia consider it together for more than 8,000 nuclear weapons.

It is located in the land, land-based missile forces of both India and Pakistan’s arsenals, although in the United States develops nuclear details at the university at the university, air and offshore warheads.

“India has a larger air leg (nuclear weapon) greater than Pakistan (nuclear weapons).

One reason, Mr. Clary, Pakistan’s “time or money”, which is built by India’s nuclear ship, does not sleep anywhere.

Pakistan has not officially announced a formal nuclear doctrine in 1998.

India, on the contrary, accepted its first use policy after his 1998 tests. However, this position showed the signs of softening. India is protected in 2003 The right to use nuclear weapons In response to chemicals or biological attacks – enabled for the first use of certain conditions.

Another uncertainty appeared in 2016, then Defense Minister Manohar Parricar offered India should not feel “connected” by policyCollect questions about long-term reliability. (Parrikar clarified that this was his opinion.)

The absence of a formal doctrine does not mean that Pakistan’s official disclosures, reportings and nuclear developments Suggest clear tips According to the operating posture, according to the TASLEM of Carnegie’s Sadiya for international peace.

Pakistan’s nuclear threat remains uncertain, but in 2001, Khalid Kidwai – then the head of the NCA Strategic Plan Section – the four red lines of the Strategic Planes: the destruction of major military assets, economic decision or political stabilization.

In 2002, then President Pervez Musharraf “Nuclear weapons are used only in India” and will only be used in the amount of “Pakistan as a state as a state.”

In the memorandum, the former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote that he woke up at night to talk with anonymous “Indian counterpart” Scared Pakistan was preparing to use nuclear weapons Stand-off of 2019 with India.

At the same time, Pakistani media quoted a high-ranking official To give a tough warning to India: “I hope that (the National Command Organization) know what and what it is. You have been waiting for that we will surprise … You chose the road without knowing the consequences of peace and security of the region.”

During the 1999 Kargil war, after Pakistani-Foreign Minister Sabshad Ahmad warned that the country will not be “Refrain from using any weapons” to defend its territory. The official Bruce Riedel, which passed years, said the intelligence was prepared by Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal Possible placement.

However, there are doubts on both sides over these allegations.

Former Pakistani High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria, POMPA Bisaria has exceeded the role of both nuclear risks and the role of the United States in calming the conflict.

“The strategic alarm is higher than the world and reminds us of any conflict with India and Pakistan.

However, the nuclear escalation can occur accidentally. “It’s human mistakes, hackers, terrorists, computer deficiencies, satellites, satellites and unstable leaders,” Rutgers University POF Alan RoboCh, global scientists, the author of the global purchase, BBC.

India in March 2022 accidentally fired a nuclear cruise missile 124 km (77 miles) to Pakistan’s territory of Pakistan and damage to the civilian property. Pakistan said that India has not been able to use the military hotline or has not been announced for two days. This occurred during the growing tension, the incident could have caused serious conflict, experts. (Indian government after months Three Air Force officers were fired for “the accidental firing of the missile”.)

Still, according to Mr. User, the threat of nuclear war remains “relatively small” between India and Pakistan.

“So, as long as the main land battle along the border, the dangers of nuclear use can be relatively small and can be managed,” he said.

“In the struggle of land, ‘use or lose’ the problem is the probability of your location positions will be overcome by the enemy.” (‘Use or lose‘Pressure refers to a nuclear armed country in the first holiday of an enemy in the first holiday of an enemy may feel its weapons before being destroyed.)

A large colleague of Stanford University’s Hoover’s organization believes that the Hiroshima nuclear taboo will not want to be labeled India or Pakistan.

“In addition, any part of the use of nuclear weapons will face significantly and will face unacceptable losses,” Mr. Ganguly said.

At the same time, both India and Pakistan look like the meat of the nuclear arsenal.

New delivery systems in development, four plutonium reactors and uranium enrichment, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal can reach about 200 battleheads by the end of 2020 Nuclear bookThe American scientists are investigated by the Nuclear Data Project Federation.

From the beginning of 2023, India was estimated that there will be about 680 kg of weapons plutonium – enough about 130-210 nuclear headerFelfile materials according to the international panel.

Despite recurring crises and close calls, both sides have been able to avoid a catastrophic slide to the nuclear conflict so far. “Deterensia is still holding. All Pakistani had to respond to self-traditional blows from ordinary blows” writes Umer Farooq, an Islamabad-based analyst.

However, the presence of nuclear weapons, the presence of a risk – no matter how much the leadership or the life of the leadership or the longitude of the intentions should be completely excluded, it cannot be completely excluded.

“When nuclear weapons are involved, there is always an unacceptable level of danger,” John’s cannabis, non-presidential policy director, said to the BBC.

“India and Pakistani governments navigated these situations in the past, so the risk is small. However, even with nuclear weapons, even a small risk is very large.”