How Trump’s Trade Policy is pressing us

Caleb Ragland voted for a soy farmer in magnolia, KY, the President Donald Trump In 2016, 2020 and 2024. Now, at a time when the sector faces large headlines, the tariff must walk the mine area.

Ragland works with his wife and three sons and has deep roots in society. The family is more than two centuries that farm is farming. However, when production costs in the last few years, there was a two-digit percentage decrease in product prices. Soy Futures fell more than 40% with corn futures in the last three years.

As a result of the tariffs implemented by the second Trump Office, it is concerned about the longevity of the work of the work in the industry as the pressure in the industry.

CNBC told CNBC that if he could make a farmer, Ragland, Ragland, the President of the Ragland, the American Soy Association belongs to CNBC. “And when you are completely strangers from our control, we will not be able to manipulate our prices by 20%, 30% and the flip, and our expenses will increase.”

This was the first time farmers had to deal with new tariffs. In the first period of Trump, in 2018, China’s trade war – Ragland said that the agricultural economy is “now in a better place” – the United States has finished in the agricultural industry More than $ 27 billionand soybeans, almost 71% of annual casualties.

This trade war caused continuous damage. To date, the United States should not yet restore the loss of the world, soybeans in the market share The number one recipient of the commodityAccording to ASA.

“Tariffs violate trust,” said Ragland. “It’s very difficult to find a new customer than protecting the ones.”

Last week the White House was given a 25% tariff for goods from Canada and Mexico In addition to additional 10% fees in Chinese imports.

Trump soon returned the course To ensure a monthly tariff delay for automatic employees Wednesday then stopped the tariffs after a day Some Canada and Mexico goods up to 2 AprilSunday, on Sunday, said in an interview with Sunday “Can rise” over time.

China’s tariffs were not included in these exceptions. China has retaliated with its own Mainly targeting US agricultural goods. In particular, the US Soybeans are now subject to an additional 10% tariff, and the corn is added to download 15% of the corn.

“Now I’m sorry,” said Ragland. “Why are we trying to insult damage to the AG sector by adding a tax on earth?”

Ragland “evaluates the President’s ability to speak” and Trump wants to be successful for the country. However, in the industry, especially those in soybeans, stressed the lack of elasticity in our ability to combat the trade war away from our sub-line.

“People are upset,” “Ragland said about the feelings of other farmers, reduces barriers to trade and a new five-year comprehensive economic legislation and new five-year economic legislation Commodity support programsbetween others. “You are talking about people’s livelihoods,” he said.

Agricultural Secretary Brooke Rollins, was reported to be Trump leadership last week Increases the weight of some agricultural products From tariffs in Canada and Mexico. Trump’s adjustable measures on Thursday a 10% tariff in potash decreasedused for fertilizer.

More than 80% of American farmers are given by Canada, Ken Seitz said Nutritious – A product entry and service provider located in Canada – BMO global metals, mining and critical minerals during the last month conference.

“As we look at the results of the tariffs for Nutrien, of course, we provide about 40% of this market in the market, which is around 10 million tons of 10 million tons in any year,” the CEO of the company. “We believe that the value of tariffs will be given to the US farmer.”

In the run from Trump’s tariffs to the implementation, American farmers were alarmed. Despite the latest Purdue University / CME Group AG Economics Barometer In February, the fact that the farmer’s thinking was improved, 44% of respondents, 44% of the month will be the most important for the farms of trade policy in the next five years.

“Usually when asked a policy question, the most important policy is product insurance,” Michael Langemeier, “Agricultural economist at Purdue University.” There is a farm in the University of Purdue. It is a very popular program because it gives a very impressive security network. “

“The fact that the plant insurance is a remote second for the trade policy, he speaks of the fact.”

The February survey also showed that almost 50% of farmers are “likely” or “probability” or “very likely”, which causes a significant reduction in the export of agriculture. Langemeier estimated that in the middle of February and early March, the net return of the net for corn, soybeans and corn. This did not end to be an extremely affordable year before 2025, “he said.

Economist thinks that there is a slightly lower in the nearest general farmer. However, the constructive result of the tariffs may be the constructive result that they can accelerate the signing of a new economic bill.

“Well, you can get amounts for product payments for how trade payments in the world. The new farm expects the signing of the bill this year.

To the upcoming spring season, Bank of America analyst Steve Byrne wrote in February. This would only mean that the risk of low fertilizer purchases that can influence Nutrien Mosaic and CF industrythe analytic recorded.

Shares of those companies, as well as other agricultural related shares Agco and TooAll on March 3 and March 4 Trump’s tariff announcement was sold in heels.

“I think that we saw the sale of AG shareholders due to general concerns that the farmer will not be profitable this year.

During the last month, the mosaic slipped almost 8%, the CF industry fell from 9%. Nutrien also lost more than 1%. Agco and Deere gave better results by earning 1.7% and 0.3% during this period.

When it comes to how to influence the long-term farmers of this trade war, Goldstein does not see meaningful. Global trade flows expect to change and cancel each other in the next two or three years.

“Although this year, this year is a close impact this year, I think in the soy furnaces sitting in the warehouses without existing buyers, and in the end, we will see other countries will start to buy more US soybeans.” “Maybe China gets more cool than Brazil, but perhaps a similar place to Europe is more soyed by the United States, … It’s not the difference.”

As in Dumbs, Brazil, 2024/2025 forecasts to be the largest soy producer in the United States, forecasts 40% of global production in the period Department of Agriculture. For corn, on the other hand, is predicted to be in the best place in the United States 31% of global production in the year of marketing.

In Wall Street, others believe that the tariffs will be more results compared to trade dynamics.

An analytical Kristen Owen in Oppenheimer predicts tasks to become a major global manufacturer for both corn and soybeans, the United States will not be a number of suppliers.

“Brazil has more likely to increase the planting areas to increase the share of global grain trade,” he said. “Some other decisions of the tariffs and the department are somewhat accelerated.”