Iran’s long arm is no longer muscular

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FT editor Roula Khalaf, chooses his favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is a regional security director at the International Institute of Strategic Studies

Iranian commanders were killed if they were killed because they were killed because they were killed in a combination of Tehran, and the Arsenal of missiles, missiles and drones, and others. They believed that Iran’s regime, the territory and critical infrastructure have found the right formula. This was an expensive effort near the Egyptian and many of the people’s neighbors and distant powers, and in the Middle East, but the leadership gave an exaggerated purpose and strength.

The two attack waves of Israel took all the waves of attacks to shake their brains. In October last year, most Iranian advanced air defense was carried out, and then the master of Israel was the master of air and clock.

Donald Trump, who entered the White House, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, regardless of the horrors he hit Gaza, received the necessary partner, with unlimited weapons and intelligence. This morning, early Israel traveled more than Iran’s military and scientific leadership and destroyed some nuclear and military facilities.

Although this claims to be a holiday in advance, Israel is a clear aggressor in this situation. To judge the Western expressions spilled this morning, this truth does not seem so meaningful as international law and diplomatic norms. It consists of raw power, not about attack, regional stability or better results for everyone.

Israel began the main restrictions and a campaign, which are the main restrictions, the main limitations of the aircraft, air bases and targets in Iran. Natanz’s critical institution stiffened, but other devices are entirely, especially the Pordow enrichment plant buried under a mountain.

Israel once again demonstrated an undeniable intelligence advantage and operating prowess. If approved, the first wave of commandos and the main commandments of the drone systems previously placed within Iran shows that Israel’s goal has more recommendations. This will continue the advantage and expand the list of target list to kill or destroy the power facilities and destroy the Supreme Leader of Iran.

This will keep the region outside for weeks for weeks. The Israeli risk appetite was misleading and exceeded its power, and the Hamas was behind Hamas since 2023 dated October 7, 2023.

If the mantra of strategic patience is no longer valid if the strategic patience is no longer valid, Tehran has only one option: attack. Khamenei usually threatened a bomb: “(Zionist) The regime is waiting for a heavy punishment. The strong arm of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic does not remain unpunished by God’s grace.”

A person criticized to be internally excessive to be extremely careful, now it can mean it. However, it is not clear that his remote proxy forces can deliver the blow. Iran’s long goal is less muscle and shorter than before. Bashar al-Assad went, Hezbollah is no longer a strategic force, and Houthis can not break red sea traffic, they cannot strongly strengthen. Russia and China will not come to rescue.

So far, Iran’s priority will not drag the United States into the war, but the accurate role of the United States will be a source of anger and confusion. Trump, took part in a deception campaign in an improved Israel? Does the United States make it easier to deny Israeli attacks? If Tehran is afraid to target the “US interests or employees” target by Marco Rubio, can the United States be sure that the United States cannot be actively connected to war? In contrast, Israel may be interested in expressing us. If an Iranian missile violates Israel’s protection and kills civilians, pressure will increase in Trump to destroy Iran’s missile websites and allow Israel’s free hand.

The best choice of Iran to retaliate is the most severe dilemma. The easiest goals are closest in the Gulf region. There will be an energy facilities and a critical infrastructure, which will take the cost of the global economy, and the countries of the global economy and its partners will be the best to develop the conflict (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE). The United States will be difficult to protect them, Washington, this crime can decide that this crime is a better course of action for Israel.

There will be many Arab tears, spilled for Iran, it does not support Israel. The undisputed military supremo in the Middle East, but everyone understands Netanyahu’s ostensible partners, including the future effects of its decisions, as well as others as they want.

Israel does not build anything better tomorrow, destroys everything that can threaten it. Meanwhile, war distracting from the terrible civilian in Gaza and distracting the international conference on Palestinian statehood scheduled for next week, is better for Netanyahu and its extremist coalition.