Israel achieves its goals in Iran – so far

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The author is MI6 and the UN Ambassador to the UN former chief

As the United States leans from the Middle East, the countries of the region apply to security issues. Israel’s attack on Iran is the latest example.

It was a brave statement of the power of Israel. The intelligence coverage was extraordinary. Israel closed Iranian commanders in their homes and killed, some have recently launched Ukraine’s recently in Russia.

How much back the nuclear program is withdrawn, will not be clear for a while. Once clicking, the Israelites can return regularly to “hay reap” if the Iranians do tire for nuclear weapons. The strikes did not end and lose their oil infrastructure and carry them more risks in the Gulf to revenge in the Gulf. But so far it looks like Israel’s goals.

Iranian leaders only accuse them of their difficulty. They continued with a nuclear program that could be only one military purpose. There are armed and funded militia to create a problem for their enemies, and the lack of control over these groups caused the attack on October 7, October 7 against Iran.

All this is the price of Iran’s development. His pride, literate and entrepreneurship people are angry with how much they fall behind the Arab neighbors. The Islamic Revolution for Iranians became a disastrous failure.

Where does this go now? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, I would like the Iranian regime to overthrow. Of course, it is fragile and deep popular, so the probability cannot be ruled out. However, when one country is attacked from abroad, the population is often unable to operate a moment of a momentary vulnerability of rallies and opposition groups. The real threat to the regime is in the streets of Iranian cities. The challenges of an Israeli leader for the rise of the Iranian people, the same people complain less when the same people are bombed.

If Iran’s authoritarian friends, Russia and China begin to launch Wobble, the regime is unlikely to be prepared. Russia did this in Syria in 2015, and this postponed Assad’s rules to decline. But if he wanted, Moscow, in mind that there is probably how long it is in Ukraine, is now there is no interference force. China and China are an air-friendly friend who has no interest in the country’s oil and promising investment, but in a country that has no interest in a country to ensure control technology.

If the Islamic regime falls at once, we should not expect a liberal government to appear. Inside the country, without a good armed opposition, the elements of the armed forces are best placed in any fight for power. They will learn the lessons of past failures, and perhaps less threat abroad, but limited freedoms in Iran can be concluded.

As in the alternative, Syria, Yemen and Somalia, splitting as occurred. In Iran, the Kurds, Arabs, Baluers, even well-integrated Azerbaijanis would be a larger scale in a country in a country where most of the majority of the Persians are in ethnic nationalism. One lesson for the recent decades, the fact that the fall of repressive regimes will always result in a better conclusion, the fact that no one is due to the fact that no one is to happen to prevent terrorist groups. Iraq finally appeared as a better place, but Saddam Hussein’s country has also been overthrown with a large oil wealth.

What does the holiday of Israel say about the American power? Individual relations between Netanyahu and President Donald Trump are not open. Trump wants to be peacekeeping and cut the deals. Netanyahu is not a help on either front. However, America’s support for Israel came again because the time to reach the Tehran negotiation agreement with Netanyahu. The Israelites were afraid of the US-Iran Agreement and the military response Trump can help prevent this dilemma.

Saudi and other Gulf countries will register it. The Prince of Crown Mohammad Bin Salman and his friends will continue to court without trusting him. It’s not just the fact that Trump’s is invalid, America has a bigger fish to fry with Chinese. Trump, which is based on the Middle Eastern security, which began under Obama, will continue to continue. The region will fill the gap.