Israeli-Iran conflict is the egos war

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The writer is the director of the Program of the Middle East and North Africa of Chatham House

Three men – Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – Israel and Iran are standing in the center of the war. Each has made ideological convictions, individual styles and strategic instinct to form leadership trajectories. Now their egos and world views collide with the results for the broader Middle East. In the war, this is not a policy that is important – personalities do it. Indeed, the ambitions of leaders often have more history often than army or institutions.

Now the 86-year-old Khamenei, the chair of the Islamic Republic spent more than three decades. In 1989, if Ayatollah Ruhollah was often dumped as a cautious spirit, he demonstrated a clever adaptation and a consistent strategic vision. His leadership marks the depth of the West and the people of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a constant belief.

The Islamic Republic has transformed an ambitious actor that predicts regional power in Iraq and Syria in Iraq and Syria in Iraq and Syria.

Khamenei’s identity – calculation and ideologically harsh – both active and responsible. This permitted the regime to endure the threats on Iran’s borders in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003. Over the years, the instinct, which is distinguished throughout the years in a volatile region, was to prevent full-scale escalation and play over time. When supporting the talks before the 2015 nuclear agreement, he was suspected of the US intentions – always afraid of the wide range of regime change in Washington.

This disbelief postponed the window of Iran’s small opportunity after the 2015 nuclear transaction. President Hassan Rouhani, Khamenei also protected the enemy. This includes changing the allied Militi as Hezbollah and Houthis, as Hezbollah and Houthis, a discount of nuclear enrichment, suudio oil facilities.

In recent months, Khamenei supported the negotiations with Trump management in the hope of saving Iran’s economy from international sanctions, corruption and management. He hoped to restore his fleecing legality through planning for the presentation. But Israel’s holidays celebrate a hernia.

Now he faces the biggest problem of his work: a war that threatens the regime’s carefully strengthened foundations. If this mode increases further or is seen as Capitation of Khamenei, it may mark the end of Iran’s theocratic model.

Meanwhile, the most political figure in Israeli politics, the corporation of such regime, the main goal is not the main goal. Career charisma, polarizing rhetoric, OUTMANOEUVRE rivals and Jews are an employee to read history as well as rapidly siege. This worldview determines the answer to both diplomacy and war. In 2015, the Iranian nuclear opposition is more managed by individual conviction than the popular opinion of Israel’s popular opinion for Iran’s nuclear security opposition, Israeli security and Ibrahim chords.

Hamas’s cruelty’s cruelty attacks and the destructive war in Gaza, Netanyahu, is accused of distracting the security threats of local departments and faced international insulation. However, his instinct is reluctant to make a project power, not compromising and superior to their enemies. Now he is seen as widely seen as a man who struggles Tehran.

Finally, this crisis has a trump that is great. Impulsive and operation was the 2018 decision for the Iranian nuclear deal after the lobbyists of Israel and the Gulf leaders.

There is no sequence of Trump’s foreign policy, but does not affect. Netanyahu and his rapprochement in 2020 helped Israel catalyze a vision for the integration of the Middle East. Again, his approach leaves the reliability of the United States and left the allies that worried their opponents such as American reliability and tamenei. Instead of showing consistent guidance, Trump left the world, which estimated the world about the US military operations in Iran. “I can do it. I can’t do it,” he said, even more perpetuated in the next two weeks.

This conflict is more than a military conflict; It is now a collision of aging leaders. Khamenei, Netanyahu and Trump decades made the way to war with incorrect calculation and brinkmanship. Now the total victory of Netanyahu’s legacy, Khamenei’s survival requires an increase or discount and Trump does not require the acceleration of regional settlement.

In the coming days, their instincts will not determine the result of this war, but the future of the Islamic Republic will determine the future of the United States and the use of the fractured Middle East.

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