Israel’s reconstruction of Gaza is a strategic disaster

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FT editor Roula Khalaf, chooses his favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is the Chief of Former Israeli Prime Minister, Defense Minister and Idaf

Since 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 20 months, Israel encounters a fate choice: to bring all the hostages to the end of the war or to pursue the war on Hamas.

However, the government encounters a deeper choice: the reconstruction and relocation of Gaza, or returning to the international community, it is suitable for distant ministers like Itamar Ben-Guir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Trump recently was reported to be warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “We will leave you if you do not finish this war.” France, England and Canada have already demanded that Israel’s humanitarian assistance or face results and the results of the uk declared This will stop talks on the bilateral trade agreement. Pressure is real and montage.

Would benefit the deal with the undisputed Israel. The return of the remaining hostages will give a chance to integrate a new regional architecture, including the beginning of the beginning and reconstruction of war and reconstruction, the beginning of the reconstruction and Israeli regional architecture, potentially in the India-Middle East-European economic corridor.

This way for Netanyahu is dangerous. This threatens his remote coalition, opening the updated calls for the survey commission on October 7 and can accelerate the trial of long-term corruption. Much more 70 percent Israelites are responsible for the failure of October and more than half Not personal – think about moving based on non-nationalists. Deal may mark the end of a long time.

The war protects him politically on the other hand. But strategically, it is catastrophic. Israel has already destroyed the majority of Hamas targets and infrastructure. I believe that another cycle of battles will be more destroyed, but will end at the same point. Hamas is a group of “fully elimination”, a group of 2 million civilians and a group of hiding a practical military mission. Indeed, an updated attack in Gaza does not offer any strategic profit and the updated battles will kill more collateral. This should only end the discussion.

Many Israeli Netanyahu’s investment in Gaza: a political war to protect the fragile coalition as a security war. And when it ends inevitably – under global pressure, humanitarian collapse or local rise – Israel will return himself where it is necessary to replace Hamas with a legitimate alternative. Why will the hostages, soldiers and more innocent pots sacrifice there?

Netanyahu needs to remember the origin to understand the depth of the strategic mistake. October 7 was the darkest day in the history of Israel. This has created an attractive imperative: Do not manage Hamas again or threaten Israel again. Again, Netanyahu did not solve this problem properly. This is the same person claimed In 2019, “Who is against the Palestinian state” transfer Foreign funds in Gaza divide Hamas and the Palestinian Organization. Netanyahu claims $ 1.5 billion (to prevent humanitarian disaster) in the foundations flowing in Qatar. But one part is likely ended in tunnels and arsenals.

The first law of the war – Clausewitz was emphasized to Kissinger – this should be served as a political goal. Netanyahu ignored this rule and failed the main test of the leadership: Cool, stay strategic under pressure. From the beginning, the IDF and war locker pressed him to determine the “next day” in Gaza. Refused. Why? Because it would be a politically inconvenient fact: Hamas, regional partners, the international community and the international community and the Palestinians themselves are made by a government accepted by themselves.

Most likely, the transition supported by the Arab League, the Arab administration and the UN. Financing can come from the Gulf States. Management will fall into technocrats and bureaucrats related to the Palestinian authority, and the new security apparatus can gradually be established under Arab and US control. Israel, in turn, will reconsider the perimeter of Gaza and demands a part of a new management body from Hamas’s military department; The IDF will only retreat after the pre-agreed security criteria are performed.

This plan has been on the table for more than a year. It was easier to exercise before the wholesale destruction of Gaza. Although it’s more difficult, life remains so. But still a sustainable victory is the only real way.

Today, Israel may require significant achievements: Hezbollah broke the threat from Lebanon, neutralized most of Syria’s military capabilities, and while Tehran was revoked, while defending himself in Iran. From this position of this power, Israel can now be directed to a wider transaction: leave all the hostages (living and dead), end the war and perform a peaceful regional order.

The hug this road will break Netanyahu’s coalition and will probably end his political career. The Prime Minister does not act with national interest; Acts purely to protect oneself. Each other dispute is a smoke.