Jerome Powell says the Fedin, ‘wait and see’ before cutting prices. Other economists are not so sure

• Federal Reserve should still reduce interest rates In 2025, President Donald is looking for more clarity on the effects of the results of the Tariff’s policy of Trump. Nourished Chairman Jerome Powell, when there is a need, some economists said that this approach is a “good condition” that concerns that the Central Bank responds to the drop down.

There is a sense of consumer roar Uncertainty of Trade Policy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged on Wednesday and the Central Bank’s statement “Beige book“Offers offers tariffs.

Fed politicians were not transferred to these “soft data” and were not transferred to transfer interest rates this year. After the central bank The latest decision It is not until the words “hard data” are not until the words of “hard information” for stability between 4.25% and 4.5% and 4.5% to 4.5%.

“Look at the state of the economy,” he said. “The work work is firm, inflation is low. We can be patient as things are opened. There is no value to this point.”

Other economists, however, have their own risks of a “expectation and vision” approach.

“The central banks reacting instead of pre-blockages are tend to be late in the change policy,” he said. “Economic information is becoming more and more reliable, more dangerous.”

So far, Powell believes that the main measures of economic conditions are fed. This Affairs Report Last week for April, he came stronger than expected, the unemployment rate was low, the chairman of the Fed, noted at 4.2%. The Central Bank selected inflation size Although the Fed’s 2% targeted on the target, he fell down.

“He is still a healthy economy,” said Powell said: “Someone shrouded in some very low part feelings by people and businesses.”

Other economists, this time, warns that there are already signs of a recession beer In the country’s ports in a dramatic slowdown Among the United States and China, especially in shipping. Special capital giant Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Sløk, was forecasted Mass Work This month can hit the industry and can be recited until the summer.

“We see shipping information, see all this,” said Powell.

However, the day before the disclosure of Trump noted the possibility of trade talks that change the situation agreement Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet With Chinese counterparts this week; Bessent said that there is an existing sustainability between the two largest economies of the world unstable.

Powell added, the federal funds, traditional monetary policy remains “average restrictive”, because the federal amount of funds remains “average restrictive”. In other words, the Central Bank, if necessary, if a decline is important, it can reduce the necessary and sharp degrees if it gives a large amount of ammunition.

“The data can move quickly or slowly,” but “but we think we are in good condition that we have developed and become clearer.”

The fear of stagflation continues to feed

At the same time, it feels a more anxious message that is fed, but it feels nutritious, but the pat is what is happening as everyone else. Central Bank note Both high unemployment and higher inflation risks are increasing risks “dilution“

Tariff violations are the central bank if both runs increase price increases and unemployment enthusiasm The settlement of one of these problems usually aggravates the other. When inflation rises, the Fed increases interest rates to cool the economy. However, when unemployment is leaving, the bank is reflected and cuts to stimulate growth.

When both variables increase in tandem, “form a complex and challenging judgment,” said Powell. He stressed that such a scenario did not play yet.

“Evaluation, waiting,” said the Department of Fed.

When it comes to push-up, many believe in Wall Street will prioritize the Fedin labor market. Traders are currently in three or four cuts by the end of the year, in the opinion of the CME group Fedwatch ToolThe Fedin Project rehearsed in June before reducing 25 points in July.

So far, the Fed took two directions, Chris Zaccarelli, Charlotte, Chrotlighted leadership head investment officer in northern North Carolina.

“Therefore, the Fed should have to wait for leap rates before restoring cutting rates,” he said, “he said.”

This also said that the Central Bank will try to catch, Matthew Pallai, Nomura capital management said.

“Perhaps the financial policy is better to deal with more risks than monetary policy,” Palay celebrated Wednesday. “Managing interest rates can be a means to walk between two obstacles.”

This story was first displayed Fortune.com

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