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The main thing of the prosperity EJ Antoni is analyzing the state of the US economy in the Republican Tax Bill and Varney & Co.
JPMorgan, this year, after the president, JPMorgan cut the forecast for the possibility of the US economy entering a recession Donald Trump He reached a contract to temporarily lower the tariffs used by the goods imported from China.
On Monday, the President announced that the “mutual” tariffs were reached in a low rate of tariffs to “reduce mutipation from 30% to 30% to 30% in 90 days. The Chinese government, in turn, reduced US goods to US goods from 125% to 20% for the 90-day period.
“The latest draconian tariffs placed in China should reduce the risk of the US economy in the recession of this year,” Current Current Conditions “Proceeding in the Exploitation of the Year of Exploitation, now 0.2% for this year, up to 0.2% of the latest tariff news do. “
“We believe that the risks of recession are still added, but now it is less than 50%,” Feroli said. The firm put the forecast risk of decay This year, in 60% after the “mutual” tariff announcement of the Trump Administration.
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JPMorgan lowered higher tariffs between 50% of a recession between the tariff break after charges of 60% last month. (Photographer: Mark Felix / Bloomberg Getty Imager / through Getty Images)
JPMorgan’s analysis, individual consumer expenditures (PCE) index – forecasted that the federal reserve chosen inflation size – At the end of this year, 3.5% will be lower than the rate of 4% before the tariff break, but it is higher than the beginning of the year, 2.2%.
A PCE reading of 3.5% is good Fed’s inflation target More than 2% probably, the Fed will not be deteriorated, the Fed’s interest rate will be reduced. In April, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, JPMorgan projects in the second quarter of 2026 the unemployment rate is 4.8%.
Tariffs, taxes imported by importers, generally transmit higher prices to consumers at higher prices. (Through Getty Images / Getty Images by Qian Weizhong / VCG)
“There is still a modest contraction project in the next year, the demand for labor demand is predicted to slow down the supply of labor,” Feroli said. “We’ve updated laboratory Outlook needs immediate action for the risks of preparation; For the Fed, we return the time to reduce the rate by September-December. “
The Bank added that after December, compared to the second quarter of 2026, decreased by 3.25% to 3.25% to 3.25% to 3.25% to 3.25%.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump stopped higher tariffs in 90 days. (Through Xinhua / Ju Peng, Getty Images / Getty Images)
Noted that the changes in the report Tariffs in Chinese goods He reduced the average rate of 12% to 14% to 14% to 14%, although the prevailing rate of 2024 is higher than a 2024.
“A Tariff is a taxAnd thus, it can be seen as a tax cut in a number of $ 300 billion in previous probabilities, “he said.
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“This tax should provide a little comfort to the return consumer spending, and the second half of the growth in the modeling is enough to reduce the second half of growth to one of the modest growth.”
