Markets ignore the latest round of Trump’s tariffs, but ‘suddenly the rubber road,’ says the UBS strategist

President Donald Trump has now gave another extension to the tariff policy entered into force on August 1. Several countries, including several countries, including large trade partners South Korea and Japan He received “tariff letters” on Monday, which has reported new tariff rates to their goods. The President said that more letters will be sent on Tuesdays and Wednesday.

The released countries will see that new tariffs are replaced by this Trumman announced on April 2.

Trump’s sudden tariff ads tanked the tank earlier this year. It is always high in some markets as the same as the same probability. Markets do not only value risk, but perhaps ignoring All together.

“At a time, there are risks to hit the rubber path and the basic trading partners are risks that the tariffs can return to April 2 or around,” said Nadia Lovell, UBS global wealth management high U.S. capital strategy, during a media briefing on Tuesday. “But now I want to take this risk in the markets.”

And see them.

Last week, S & P hit 500 Intraday high all the time 6,284.65. Tuesday is only 50 points from this note. Markets made dishonorable In early April, it is mainly because the investors considered the US steady for the United States for trade policy. They also used to be more used to the Herky-angry nature of the White House tariff policy.

“We saw the control of the department for the last few months, only a quick sketches and this can be another tactical escalation in a way,” Loveell said about the latest periods.

Investment circles called this phenomenon “Put the trump“A reference to the options trading. Trump is a disputable investment thesis.

This is not to say that the markets are completely immune to the violation of uncertainty tariffs. This Dow Jones and S & P were both sank on Tuesday for the second day of consistent.

The Trump has shown some sloping so far turn away from the most toughest tariff policy. This numerous The latest history extensions and breaks are not swept as the last versions of any tariff that helps investors who help investors. There is also Several kartilers for a certain industry As chips, critical minerals and some pharmaceuticals. However, Trump will not be extended on August 1.

With the current break, the total tariff rates for importing to the United States are six times higher than the year. According to UBS estimates, in 2024, the average weight rate rate is 16% in 2024 compared to 2.5%. If all postponed tariffs should be re-evaluated, this ratio will increase to 21%.

Throughout the Wall Street, the financial institutions have been back since April, it recommends that customers are away from US capital. Many money managers have been carrying out more of their portfolio to some European shares behind their colleagues for years. The reason for US markets, the cause of these investors is still subject to the compactory of a mixed trade policy.

“Nothing happening yesterday, the 2025 US tariff should be done to say that we are close to the end of the story of the story,” said Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global currency and prices wrote strategy. “It is still new ‘strategic tariffs’ to wait for this year, putting aside that mutual tariffs should still be resolved.”

Increasing the tariff levels, the United States will see that the growth forecasts are lower than them. In the early days of Trump’s tariff policy, US decline has increased. Predictions in the Wall Street and the forecasts in the federal reserve have cut the forecasts for GDP growth and removed for inflation and unemployment. The average growth rate for the United States among Fed economists is 1.4%. UBS 2025 projection is down, according to the head of the United States Jonathan Pingle, enters 0.9%.

If all of the April tariffs will return, the United States may lose the “other three-third-thirds” annual growth rate.

“Under this scenario, the reserves of the recession will rise and will feel like quite slow growth,” he said. “I mean the United States does not increase sub 1% too often.”