By Jamie Mcgeever
Orlando, Florida (Reuters) – Trade Day
To make the meaning of the forces driving global markets
By Jamie McGeever, Markets Corner Writer
Movin ‘on
On Monday, the relief and optimism, which combat world markets, dollars and bond products under the shares, the US-China tariff talks hit a surprising cooperative chord and hoped the worst of the global trade crisis is over.
Today, in my column, I reactive to polymicatics than many peers who cut the Fedin interest rates. Below are more below, but first rounding the main market.
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If you have more time to read, there are several articles I recommend to help you feel what happened in the markets today.
1. The United States and China are temporarily trying to make the tariffs easier to slip temporarily and slip. Investors delight the US-Chinese tariff reconciliation, but the main deal 3. 4. Trump signs Prices in the Pharma industry sign 5. Signs order to request prices
Today’s main market is moving
* Wall Street, rising with Dow 2.8%, S & P 500up 3.3% and Nasdaq leap 4.4%. The last two hits since the beginning of March, all three are above the 200-day average. * Among the main global capital index earnings: Seng Seng Seng Tech, respectively 3% and 5% bee; Up to about 4% of India; Japan and Msci Asia Ex-Japan increased by 2%. * The US Treasury draws higher until a short end to 13 BPS. The 2-year productivity rises over 4.00%. * About 3% of gold slides. * The dollar index is best in the best day and in recent years since used in November last year.
Tariff a market ‘game change’
The longer-term outlook is doubting that close-term prospects are brighter than the last week today, no matter what world trade, economic growth and financial markets.
Unexpected sincere and productive negotiations between the United States and China in Geneva in the weekend, the world’s two largest economies have broken and lower the risks of the world, investors have assessed the world markets.
On Monday, many economists, the predicted stimuli, which would be low, and some will raise the US outlook, China raised the growth forecasts.
Of course, if the US tariffs are, wherever the President’s tariffs will be higher than the President Donald Trump’s previous one before it comes to power, it is likely to be highest in almost a century. However, relative to expectations – recently, Friday Trump has been announced by 80% of tariffs for Chinese goods – and the 90-day break is unequivocally positive for risk appetite.
Positivity is a signal that the level of agreed tariffs – the level of agreed tariffs, and sent information about the speeches against both countries and talks with other countries.
“Chinese tariff is a game change for tactical risk,” says Citi’s Stuart Kaiser. “There are still great policy and economic risks, but we do not see any reason to stand on the systematic purchase.”
The systemic purchase was the name of the game on Monday. The S &A 500 and the NASDAQ and the first time since the late March, they passed the 200-day movement average. This proved to be a fake dawn – will it be different this time?
The United States is followed by a melting in trade tension, the only reason for investors – global geopolitical tensions to appear as a cooling on many fronts.
Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelenskiy, this week he wanted to negotiate with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Istanbul, said that a meeting will not want to participate in Trump this week.
On Saturday, Holday Monday, the ceasefire between Hamas and Pakistan, and for more than four years of the United States, the Kurdistan Labor Party (PKK) military group.
Thus, the signs of escalation in ceasefire and real military conflicts in the Global Trade War. The reasons for the removal of investors are comfortable and even hilarious.
Fed ‘wait and see’ restrictions
A fragment between federal reserve and other major central banks is revealed because they are trying to assess the economic impact of rapidly changing global trade war.
The Fed continued to maintain interest rates in front of the growing risk of inflation, many peers, many peers, slowing down the slowing of growth.
The careful position of the Fed continues the risk of stool Jerome Powell and the team once again.
The gap between the relevant policy ratients of the Fed and the relevant policy ratios of the Central Bank of the European Central Bank last week. US interest rates have not been higher than Canada since 1997.
Powell, his colleagues and colleagues last week, he said he was able to maintain a patient policy position, because the US economy was still in good condition. The growth and labor market is strong and inflation is based on their 2% target.
The waiting expenses were “low enough”, Fedin Fed’s left policy told reporters after changing. “We can move quickly when appropriate. But there is so uncertainty … I really can’t give you a while for a while.”
The result here is that it is any economic damage to delay its easiest period, the Fed Cut will be neutralized with more aggressive actions between the 100 key points between August and December last year.
May be desirable thinking.
According to Powell, unemployment and retail sales, it remains healthy enough, “soft” information like “soft” information, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. And the belief has a direct impact on the consumer, work and investor spending.
It is difficult to predict how strong this connection is as weakened since the pandemic. However, the Fed means that the growth of growth in the undergrown, which is probably a recession, which reveals a serious deterioration in “hard” data.
To export inflation
To be fair for Powell, the US position is more acceptable when the US position is considered by the inflation lens.
US inflation expectations are higher than other places, and consumers are busted up for steep rise in prices in late this year due to import tariffs coming. These expectations can change the following news on Monday, a significant escalation in the US-Sino trading tension.
After reaching trade agreements, American average effective tariffs will still be highest in decades. More than 75% of the companies investigated by the Fed said they would provide information on reducing costs for consumers.
If the US-Chinese ceasefire does not hold ceasefire, Beijing will almost redirect the transportation of cheap goods from the world to the rest of the world. Another thing is equal, it will put pressure on inflation in the United States while putting low pressure in other developed economies. This can explain mostly cautious and jet posture in the Fed.
‘Extreme unanimity’
“Fed suffers from extreme unanimity,” said Willem Busicher, the past relatient in the UK Bank. When it comes to variable proportions between central banks, he claims to be a tendency to be “extremely grade.” If they know the latest goals of politicians, he says they should go there as soon as possible and as soon as possible without violating the volatility of the non-unwilling financial market.
Anxiety does not have an idea of what the fed’s last goal is due to the fog of uncertainty. Powell refused to say which aspect of the Fed’s employment and inflation, taking into account the greater risk of the Fed’s employment and his colleagues.
In the best periods, to determine the policy, Milton is an indefinite scientific and sensitive of the “long and variable” decline in Friedman’s.
Steve Dean says Steve Dean says, “You never get it right, or slow or slow.”
Investors are not very concerned about the policy industry given in front of the trade war in recent weeks in recent weeks. Wall Street was completely restored in the place where he lost immediately after April 2.
If the Sisi of Trade War is cleared, the Fed will probably be in a better position to move Powell’s “Wait and See” approach. But you may need to wait 90 days to find.
What can the markets carry tomorrow?
* UK Employment (March)
Ideas stating that the author expresses. Reuters under trust principles do not reflect the opinions of the news, deprivation of integrity, independence and prejudice.
(By Jamie McGeever, Regulation by Nia Williams)
