The federal reserve requested next month

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The writer is a consultant for the President of Queens College, Cambridge and Allianz and Gramercy

It was not necessary to have this way. So far, the federal reserve should be able to announce the “mission carried out” when the US inflation is higher and higher than in a higher and higher speed. Thus, in August 2022, it may also be able to point out the success of economic “pain” while resolving prices.

Instead, the Fed will have to walk in both elements of its twin goals – low inflation and maximum employment – a threatening summer. The White House will continue to stop attacks, especially this year, this year has not been possible this year’s potential ratio is possible this year. This year is committed this year to distribute a new monetary policy framework, which is likely to remind many defective people.

The list of difficulties does not stop here. This Feeding Historical economic relations with access to policy formation operate in an unstable environment where it is more unstable. The central bank should pay attention to the dollar – the latest weakness, in the global economy, for a long time in the global economy and the US financial markets, some concerned about the financial markets about the financial markets. Then there is an extracurricist in the activities of the US Treasury market.

Many problems in the defense of the Fed are due to the cause of control factors. Four, especially in history, helped what I believe in history as a period of economic uncertainty.

First, of course, twists and turning in the US approach tariffs. The weapon of this economic policy is accompanied by some confusion in connection with the priorities of the Trump Administration. Is the “Escalate Escalate Escalate strategy” to provide a better fair trading system of higher tariffs? Or is the Budget revenues and the world of tariffs long to restore Reshore production activities?

The second factor is uncertainty, especially the approach of state funding for the policy of management in general. The full impact of the “Big, Beautiful” budget bill passing through the Congress is still not felt. It is not known how to develop the government’s employment and contracts. The size, shape and time of the white house adjustment plans are still clearly visible.

The third factor is a set of inconsistency of unusual data. The soft data that captures the feelings of companies and households, warns red, low growth and higher inflation in months. Hard information related to what they do has not yet confirmed each of them.

The fourth factor is more positive – the potential to increase productivity from innovations, especially artificial intelligence. However, most importantly, there is no consensus on the scale and time of such developments.

All this makes the Fedin difficult to predict and move at a time when the table rises as a risk. This is more difficult than the erosion of the reliability of the Fed policy – an important factor for effective forward policy leadership.

Given the one in the insult, the Central Bank has no choice but to defend more than this summer. However, it should not be limited. Also, you need to go with an insulting of a more reliable framework of monetary policy, including drawing Recommendations I was part of the full disclosure of the last G30 working group. They include the improvement of the communication as measures such as the use of a formal structure for the use of forward management and releasing an official structure; Publishing workers forecasts; Open leadership related to trade and extinguishing between employment and inflation; And the quantity develops a transparent framework to evaluate facilitating and compressing programs.

Fed, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley and as others should be more open to use a number of scenario analysis argued. This should improve the grainage agreement on the impact of households and companies of economic forces.

Finally, this year should have another strategic review for nutrition: 2 percent consider the target of inflation. Undoubtedly, it requires consideration of how the economy changes in a structural way. Again, already openly and repeatedly managed by Fed. In the current situation, it may seem an open defensive movement, but it can prove a better opportunity.