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Last Wednesday, the summer statement, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, made the things he expected. In advance faced with worse predictions Office for budget liability More than the latter OctoberThe government, headlines and income plans, plans for the restoration of OBR referees, income and income plans for five years, due to the restoration of the stock market for five years. Was it sensitive? Yn
As I agreement Two weeks ago the world changed significantly to the world that needs to increase defense costs. In this context, the government had to ask for re-reviewing part of its taxes and expenditures. Like a wider, Andy Haldane He argued, in response to changes in high levels, there is a lot of meaning to prevent such amendments to the spending in response to changes in uncertain forecasts. The presence of fewer financial events and set targets and determine the goal and forecasts would prepare forecasts in terms of more results than unusual incorrect point calculations.
The OBR process offers a different opportunity. This is to ensure a serious external assessment of the impact of government structural reforms. Such reforms are now important in view of Britain’s miserable economic performance. Really, like my colleague Chris Giles In a statement on the summer statement, the last economic issue is the greatest economic issue: frustration, frustration continues for slow growth. The economy between 2019 and 2024 has expanded 3.4 percent. The worst, from 2015 to 2024 since 2024, economy and extensive productivity increased by 4.4 percent.
As the growth is so slow, there will be no avaluation, including financial problems, including the difficulties of growth. The talk economy is also a “zero amount” economy, which means less meaning to others for some groups. The policy of such a economy is forced to form. As a result, it is likely that the financial discipline or democracy itself is likely to collapse.
Therefore, it is important to expand the potential of the economy. To do this, one of the government’s opinions is undoubtedly a good thing – more home and infrastructure. OBR provides an interesting analysis of the past. His decision will help, but not as much as it can be hoped or economic.
Thus, the center forecast of the OBR is less than 1.3 mns, as well as in such forecasts. The effectiveness of the fact that there are strong oppositions, which is still expected. It is possible to imagine The scale or other developments can cause more expanding in supply.
The expansion of the supply of the supply of the OBR in the “low scenario” is 100,000 compared to the central forecast in 2029-2030. However, the “high scenario” is 100,000 more than the central prediction. The appropriate increase in GDP is 0.1 and 0.3 percent. Growing home prices in housing supply compared to what is happening without new measures is very low. OBB also suppose that people will increase in time and pass to more productive areas. However, a larger house embroidery program will need to reduce the existence of the apartment and low prices.
This suggests that the government is more radical to significantly improve the growth prospects. For example, a dramatic decrease in the cost of construction of infrastructure is required. Acute improvements are also productivity in the public sector. Special attention should be paid to promote the update. The need to expand to be spent on defense can help in this regard. Cleverly, pension reform can improve the presence of risk capital. It is also important to reform and simplify the tax system. The last, but at least, the government should avoid any serious reluctant mistakes. Decisions can prove great mistakes to increase the cost of labor by higher taxation, minimum wage and tough adjustment.
The government should not allow the financial position to be buried in infinite pinch. Instead, root growth should pay attention to structural reforms. May not work quickly. But they are the only thing that will work in a long time. Large reforms are very important.
