The markets cannot be saved in Trump

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Trump’s Sensitivity to Markets

One of the standard clins of Trump management analysis, will provide a guard if the carets are not something else. Economically destructive politics, says, tariffs or deportations, stocks or bonds will encourage him to return it. It is “Trump Tutu”.

This may see that the idea is approved in the events of recent days. Trump has introduced tariffs in Canada and Mexico that according to the Orthodox economy, will damage the US economy and damage corporate profits, according to corporate America. The shares probably spent several days in response, changing and unpleasant. And as predicted, the tariffs have been repeatedly Delayed or modified. Protests from management – Secretary of the Treasury lean The main street, saying, “I do not look at the market”, not in the Wall Street, not silent and defended in this framework.

This reading problem is that despite the voice and anger, the bases did not simply move much. S & P 500, the index, which everyone is watching, is always 7 percent less than a while a month ago. Ten-year treasury productivity fell sharply in January, and this landing falls down to reduce almost an increase in growth expectations. However, leadership likes lower prices and weaker dollars; The President brag about the fall of prices in his speech in Congress on Tuesday. It is unknown whether or not to be unaware of a continuous cause or not to slide on it. Therefore, Aghbaledged, the will of the wills of the markets did not be given to a correct test.

But you can look back on the term Trump for leadership. Nomura Jeremy Schwartz did it and came to the conclusion

The history of the first cycle of Trump offers relatively high pain tolerance for the weakness of the capital market. . . It is the simplest and most widely proof that Trump has chosen to increase the trade war in 2018 (one of the years of the worst recession for capital performance in recent decades). It should be noted that this was a year with secondary elections. . . In a more micro level, we also see the few arguments that the lace set tariff ads to manage capital markets.

Interestingly, Rafael Ch Ch. magazine global consultants looked at the same date and came to a little different. Trump’s most powerful policy proposal or threatened, it was supported by Mexico or Xi Jinping or whether or not aluminum tariffs, and supported the majority of the markets against him. However, market movements must be continuous: more than two and a half years, more than two and a half, more than a month. There is a little proof that meets short-term market movements. And as the CH Points, we did not have a sustainable market in the second Trump management, so we do not know the same pattern as the first.

Ch is another important observation. The reference point is important for the market decrease. Down by where? It shows how the existing leadership has moved since the opening day of the market, but has been going on to talk about market performance since election day.

In Sum: We do not know that Trump is placed.

Slower and preoccupy a business

There was a vibe slip in the economic outlook in the last two weeks. The Tariffs and Government Efficiency Department is the weight in investors and consumer feelings. At the same time, it has not been very bad (that is, not questionable). Some information on the market is not as bad as it appears first.

Although the Sunday was due to the estimates of ISM inquiry two weeks ago, the official freedom was not terrible. Both production and services have continued to expand and the services saw an apple in most submersions. Although the Michigan sentiment request is related to the market, it is possible to read a lot in the market. Surveys can be deceptive at a time running highly working.

The same words can also be said about the latest predictions. Atlanta Fed took a very bad gdpnow assessment for the first quarter:

But the GDPNow model is a problem here. Companies are pre-running tariffs by increasing importance, and the import of imports as negative for GDP. However, this imports will be replaced by GDP, which is not caught in the model, and this imports will be replaced by an increase, Chris Giles as our colleague explains.

Instead, most of the solid data showed weakness in the segments of solid or already fighting market. It seems that the market seems to be worried about the start of the lower housing two weeks ago. But apartment The market was already broken and this change was not much. Two weeks ago, the initial unemployed allegations and were firm and were firm and did not damage the Doge’s cuts.

All this puts today’s work report more sharply.

The initial indicators we receive this week show that this can be a bad report. ADP Private Salary Report, Wednesday, was Abysmal. This has shown that employers have only 77,000 jobs from January and a consensus estimate of the January last month. The Challenger survey, which follows the work that cut the case, given a matte picture at the same time. The planned work was doubled up to 72,000 and became a great increase in ads declared from the federal government. Weekly banks on American card information showed consumption in the last week – However, Washington fell in the Washington DC.

We have to see some influence DOGE in today’s business report. However, general information is not so bad. Vibe Shift can still be vibes.

A good reading

Friendship.