The most popular recession of the federal reserve is a flashing threat

A surfire recession near the federal reserve has taken into account the signal of a Surefire recession, the head of the head of the bond market again.

The 3-month note of the 3-month note in trade on Wednesday is 10 years of treasure productivity below. In the market Lingo, it was known as “a transformed product curve” and had a record of sterling for decades for decades 12-11 months for decades.

In fact, the New York Fed considers it such a reliable indicator Offers monthly updates In connection with the percentage of a recession that occurs in the next 12 months.

At the end of January, the 10-year productivity was a 3-month 3-month-old 0.31 percent point, a total of 23%. However, it is almost certain to change because in February, as the relationship changes sharply. The reason for the act of being considered the recession of the action is the expectation of the Fed’s short-term rates in response to economic retreat in the future.

“If investors accept a collection of a risky attitude collection more risky because of a growth of growth, if it is accepted a delayed collection of behavior in the work periods,” he said. “A signal we will see if there is more noise or a clear slowing down in economic activity is not clear.”

Although the markets are closely following the connection between 10-2 years of record, the Fed is measured for 3 months because the Central Bank is more sensitive to the speed of federal funds. 10 years / 2 years of spread, although it is significantly in recent weeks, he had a humble positive positive.

To make sure, the curved inversions are not a strong but perfect forecast date. In fact, the previous inversion took place in October 2022 and There has not yet been a decline 2-year after.

Thus, when the growth will be negative this time, investors are concerned about the concerns of the expected increase on an ambitious agenda Donald Trump cannot happen.

Economic barriers arising

After November 5, 2024, 10 years of productivity, presidential elections, Building on the grooming starting Trump went to the top in September in September, when the box was higher in the box and a week before the inauguration of about 20 January. This would generally be a telltale sign of investors who expect more growth, although some market positives have demanded the state document required by US assembly and deficiency in inflation

Productivity collapsed for taking the Trump office last month. About 10-year-old point points or 0.32 percent points, because investors are worried about the inexpensive incident, the agenda of Talif’s trade agenda. Evaluation revenues are now essentially unchanging election day.

“There are many small holes in the way you need to walk really,” he said. “What happens, especially the uncertainty around the tariffs, puts a very strong magnifying glass on all these cracks. People pay attention to this now and pay attention to it.”

The latest feelings reflected in the prospects reflecting the consumer and investor Anggini, such as inflation as the reduction in growth may slow down.

Michigan Monthly Respondents at the University of Michigan, the highest level in the highest level in the next five years, and has laid longer liberation in the highest level of inflation since 1995. Tuesday, The Conference Office was reported The forward-looking expectations index sank up in a row by decline in February.

Again, as the consumer and labor market indicators, most of the “hard” economic information was even positive in the face of decreasing.

“We’re not looking for a recession,” said Poredelli. “We do not expect one. We expect a more softer economic activity next year.”

Markets are also approaching the same view of weak activity.

In response, in response, at least a hundred percent point of this year, this year, this year, a result that has slowed the Central Bank’s growth Fedwatch of the CME Group Futures prices size. The bond market said the “in the air”, “in the air”.

However, Rupkey also said that a recession would act in fact, because the labor market has not yet made one.

Inversion of income, “said a pure game in the economy as strong as they think that people will be at the head of the cosmetical leadership.” “Absolutely the Project of Recession, no matter the project. You need a loss for a recession, so we do not reach a basic point of data.”