The US corporate gain increase is up to zero

Wall Street started with sunlight and rainbow forecasts in 2025. In 2025, in 2025, in 2025, more strong S & P 500 profits are expected to increase. However, in 2025 the forecasts of analysts were foggy. The growth forecast of Wall Street in 2025 in January, the growth forecast of S & P 500, fell to 13% in March, and currently registered in 8% in late April (see table). Obviously, analysts look at the clouds of storms on the horizon. But in our opinion, the first forecast of 17% in the initial forecast of Wall Street was never acceptable and is not 8% today. Indeed, we forecast 2025 earnings at 0%.

Why do you think Wall Street is a 17% gain increase forecast in heaven? The strong economic growth is based on an incorrect hypothesis for something. As for the determination of national income, we consider the theory of money in the amount of money, when monetary contracts, real economic activities and inflation is signed. Since the establishment of the federal reserve, only four episodes of the supply contraction were: 1920-22, 1929-33, 1937-38 and 1948-49. All followed by the recession and is in a state of great depression.

Today’s work is nothing. The cyclical deceleration we are currently witnessed, in the last three years, the money mass of money measured by M2 has become an actor in the last three years. Since April 2022, M2 has not been to grow. This indicates that the US economic slowdown is moved before the trump begins.

Tariffs and uncertainty

Thus, in early 2025, we slowed the course of money in the last few years, we slowed a minor in a few years. However, since the beginning of the year, the markets were shaken by Trump’s tariff policy. Trade and tariff policies themselves are anti-growth policies, after which international operations are taxes. In addition, the Trump was eliminated, or eliminated or eliminated, the government office and agencies were wholesale and many others. These actions, plus a plethor of others in an avalanche of the presidential executive power, created uncertainty.

In his book Depression, War and Cold War (2006), Robert Higgs definite The regime will continue to take place with the government action and the possibility of income of investors ‘investors’ investors in investors. “This is the lower part of the work confidence. The regime is associated with low levels of work confidence in high levels and requires sufficient work confidence in private parties. In other words, the uncertainty of the regime reduces private investment. MIT’s Robert Pindyck put Like this: “Investment costs at a cumulative may be highly sensitive to risk in various forms … (including) uncertainty on future tax and regulation policy.” Higgs’ intellectual antecedent, nobody except Yusif Schumpeter expressed similar ideas in the significant book Capitalism, socialism and democracy (1942). Of course, as it is characteristic of any capitalist system, there are always pockets of uncertainty scattered from the economy. Regime is an uncertainty, on the other hand, a systematic injection of uncertainty in the whole economy. It’s a rare event like this.

As a result, the elements of the regime’s uncertainty have already grew up the ugly head. Marks are everywhere. This Baker, Bloom & Davis Index of uncertainty Currently, in the 40-year history and Tuesday, in April in April, the US consumer confidence in the United States fall Since October 2011 to the lowest level. Business leaders are no longer able to make long-term investment decisions, causing transaction activities drain and to apply to many companies leave The profit increase in the administration is completely. This New York Fed’s April Survey Workers in the Tristat region showed capital spending plans in the last two decades: During a large financial crisis and coviet lockdowns. The level of uncertainty is so high that companies are even stopped Invest in marketing and advertising campaigns for products.

Investment Freezer

The best historical parallel “current situation” to the United States is the state of great depression. Indeed, the second new deal of the President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1935-1940) also created an uncertainty. This is Higgs in 1933-1940, in 1933-1940, in 1939 to 1940, in 1939, after the beginning of depression in 1939, the “great term” lasted for the significant activity of his ability for 12 years. Why? Because the second new deal is tucked in reconstruction of the American economy. This re-structure is indefinitely as the Right Work Leaders and Investors are the rules of the game. Trump’s sweep policy and suggestions have the same effect.

Therefore, we expect the growth of real GDP, one or two punch money supply stagnation and trump policy to zero under the uncertainty of the regime. By doing so, we expect a profit increase to fall to zero. Over the past 30 years, when the economic growth slowed down, the S & P 500 gain growth has always been zero.

Expect to lead in full speed, more firms, uncertainty and trade breaks by the savings season. Once Trump’s Tariff Mode – this enterprise will not be convinced that despite the president or future leadership. Without long-term policy clarity, firms may not justify the long-term investment. As a result, 8% of the current consensus of the Wall Street will be more than the expectation of earnings growth.

Steve H. Hanke, Johns Hopkins University and Author Leland Yegager, the author of the Economy applied on the authorCapital, interest and waiting. Guy Petcho is an adviser to the two SIGMA’s arbitrary macro investment team.

Read more:

• It is impossible to end up with the tariffs of the US trade deficit and takes a risk Eliminates the overall of two long-term US
• Trump’s tariffs are not ‘common sense’and they put America’s reliability and ‘excritant privilege’ at risk
• Based on Trump’s Tariffs Program Defective assumptions on trade deficit
• Tariffs will not make America great again: Former chairman and president of the Export-Import Bank

This story was first displayed Fortune.com

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