The US stock rally faces some hard tests

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Bounce starting in US shares since April Tariff Chaos. Now Donald Trump is an event that can make or break the “Big, Beautiful” budget bill.

USA retail investors are all inside. They were among the shock of the “Freedom Day” tariffs and did not look back in the US shares. The rewards that began on their way were based on a jump at the lowest point in April 22, the lowest point in April, S & P 500.

This index is still positive in just one year, leaving most of the rest of the world, and this week has run out over the past few weeks. But still, mother and pop investors and other early dip buyers, give you hello. It was a very impressive trade.

If you break or wear a rose colored glasses, or both, you can make a worthy argument that should be reopened why it recovers. US President Donald Trump is a way that prevents a medding and often guided by economic and geopolitical positions in trade, but it feels like preventing disaster.

Since the legitimate confusion, the most aggressive global trade tariffs have stopped. Contracted with China. He was also forgotten about the federal cautious reserve chair and other Zany’s views to the EU, looking for a 50 percent tariff and external films tax.

Thus, because you receive an immersion, not because you have always been able to replace the dip you receive and actually have the dip in the past, or to the past. In the markets, it is better to be better than being lucky, but a little or both goes long.

Morgan Stanley, even with some bumps on the road, thinking that this is further stretched. That is Pen in 6,500 In the middle of next year, the level for the S & P 500 – 10 percent, which we are today, and advises that customers stay in the rest of the world.

There have been many strangers. Who is to say that it’s wrong? However, my extensive surveys should still give a deep bench of other market specialists who share this enthusiasm. Do not hit Messenger – other people have done this in my boxes these days in my boxes these days – but it still does not see how well it all works.

The main reason for doubt does not mean that the disaster does not take Nirvana. As a result, for many people so far the recovery scale in the US markets – not only shares, but not other risky active classes – just do not mean.

Victor Hjort, a strategist in BNP Paribas, is one of the heavier battles of the bounce in the last ten years, the leap has been a “extremely technical squeezing stage.” “This is almost in mid-2022 (negative), as in the early year of the year, everyone, when we all think of a recession,” he said. This was just a little good or at least he needed a bad news, I meant a great jump.

Now says the worldview of the United States for corporate debt markets is unequivocally negative and fought as a fight against the need to borrow more than investors and inhibits the ability of enterprises to know the plan of knowing the plan.

The good news for the US stock optimists is that Big Tech – Sunday crown jewelry is still pump Star incomeNVIDIA’s blasting benefit was reported this week.

However, the bed, Trump, now calls on the “Big, Fine” budget bill by walking around the road with the US legislature. This includes two basic banana glories for investors.

One is “Part 899”, a provision that increases the possibility of additional tax on foreign investment in the United States. It’s mostly under the radar, there is a lot of snuck under the radar, but as we report this week, investors are now alarmist. This year, compared to other world markets, it is difficult to imagine that this will make the light of the day, taking into account the success of the United States. Nevertheless concerned.

The other, there are sketches of the “Beautiful” bill in the great increase and cutting of debts. The bond market is already spitIt will come with a heavy value, beautiful or otherwise, all this extra lender.

When the stock exchanges gave the benchmark bond higher, especially technological sectors, the investors often include inclined to perform the potential of their realities. “Each institutional investor buys it …” says Mark Dowing, RBC Bluebay Asset Management. “But try to explain to retail investors. They don’t care all this. They don’t care everything.

Sour grapes? Maybe. But the recovery of the bitch, which is in the last six weeks or therefore, is preparing to face some hard tests.

katie.martin@ft.com