The world is changing, not the US market

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The writer is the chairman of Rockfelller International. His latest book ‘What happened to capitalism’

The “American Exclusive” period, Trump’s policy, decrease in the dollar, so far froze its international competitors since 1987.

Surprisingly, despite the blows from Washington and the Middle East, US shares are still higher stones. Although the United States has exploded us, there are US bond prices. American market performance is less exceptional, because the rest of the United States is not due to the decline in the United States.

Many rejected this sustainability as foolish optimism and claim that the US shares will soon be subject to the 2025 Goomcycle. However, the spaces between this width, the message of the markets is usually more correct. Thus, it is worth trying to understand what markets can feel.

US shares Trump’s policy seems to be floating in the history of information that continues to show that it still does not affect inflation or growth. Great fear was the increase in inflation and slow growth of its developing tariffs. Instead, lower and increase in inflation consensus forecasts and remained at a higher level. Tariff revenue in treasury buttons, but in consumer prices, not much for a little mysterious reasons; Does the External Safety Wants Features or Perhaps the existing inventory of US firms?

In one way or another, US corporations must still be subject to an important shot for profit. Most projections are still slowly (up to 8 percent), increase in inflation (about 1.5 percent of about 1.5 percent) and GDP (about 1.5 percent) (about 1.5 percent) (about 1.5 percent) (about 1.5 percent). But market It brushes these forecasts.

US Corporations return their shares in a pace of about $ 4 billion a day. American retail investors buy an unusual aggressive tempo this year. About half of the United States currently sets up shares – a record during the 2000 DotCom Baloncus. Former line – Never bet against the US consumer – a new twist can be added. Do not bet against a US retail investor.

Meanwhile, despite the jeopardy of new taxes on foreigners, money transfers and foreign investment, deportation and more, US shares or bonds do not take a significant retreat. This begins to look like a marriage and change that is surviving in inertia.

As in the past bear markets, in recent months, including the 2000s, the decline in the last months was seen as a regular regulation after a long extreme assessment – not a sign to finance America’s major shortcomings.

As expected last year, it was clear that the US deficit would continue to stretch towards a new summer – perhaps most analysts would forecast the riot of GDP. Instead, the answer was answered marginal this year.

Most observers brought to the lung that threatened America’s main idea before the presidency of Trump and changing the world’s main idea. But the stock market is treated as nothing changes. The same domestic trends in the ruling last year are in the game.

AI Mania has reached new heights with a basket of AI shares that violates the EU’s height. At the beginning of the year, a budding narrative, like the US DeepSeek, pale and analysts reiterate America’s preferences. The Americans seem to have adopted the EU faster than the past, including the past, including digital technologies of the past. US companies place faster than their external colleagues, including those in China. The world’s top 10 AI platforms are an American, which is eight by the number of users, by Chatgpt.

The first five US technological companies continue to be dominated and about 30 percent of the US exchange value. Meanwhile, small and medium hats continue to be behind under a leader who promised to help these institutions, as long as for years.

The market optimists promise a fertility miracle of a productivity, which promises a fertility miracle or increased deficiency and debt to increase the EU economic growth. They look into this roll future, and at the end of this year, they do not talk about the economic problem in the future.

To do this, there are three ways to this young man: a narrative, given that companies are invested in $ hundreds of billion dollars in the AI ​​infrastructure, without knowing who is profit or when. Economists look at the market than the market on the threat of lower growth and higher inflation from tariffs. Or investors are a mirage of the visible power of US consumers and corporations – a slide of mass and growing US government.

U.S. markets are likely to encourage you to shock and gain the Goomjycle, until you play until one of these scenarios.