Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Between a cloudy worldview, they will find a good economic fortune or a decline.
On the one hand, the interest rate reduction can be finally calculated in the federal reserve the threat of inflation passed and economic predictions are stable again Tariff and induction. This result is investors and President Donald Trump It would be most pleasant. However, this uncertainty will remain where there are interest rates until the subsident.
However, there is a scenario that the ratio is enthusiastic, not a sign of comfort, but a long-fearing retardation. The labor market will begin to go to the south, the Fed had to throw away and cut the rates. In this case, investors and president, they will have more than these: 50 main points have decreased.
The cutting rate of this size is doubled, and the regular 25 key points are doubled, only if the unemployment is spiked and the companies stop hiring the year later. Fed, arrest patterns began, very worried Trump tariffs reignite inflation. But in recent weeks, more attention was paid to unemployment – the other side of the binary mandate. Investors are worried that the labor market can be teetering.
“We think the first incision is 50 key points,” he said. Nancy Vanden Houten is conducting US economist Oxford economy.
The Oxford economy forecasts a ratio of 25 main points in December. The firm, a jumbo rate of the company, scored points at the bottom, can be reduced quickly, even dramatically from the work market. This is the nature of the decline in the labor market, which is more important than anything.
“If it is unpredictable in the type of shopping, the end of this year will motivate the 50-century dotting reduction,” said Jose Torres, an economist in interactive brokers. “You will need things to go really bad until the end of the year to happen.”
If bad news is fast and severe, the fed should be fed.
“We see a higher action that is greater than the first action, that is, we see a growing risk of 50 main points, because at this point,” with the “labor market”, which is nourished at this point, told Vanden Houten Fortune.
The existing labor market is carefully stable despite the market turbulence covering the original tariff ads in April. Under the surface, there are some subtle changes that show that there is a lover. Unemployment rate in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was reduced from 4.2% to 4.1%. This title number has closed the speed of speeding 147,000 businesses in the business market. The special sector work has grown at the lowest level for eight months; 130,000 people fell from work; and individuals outside a job were unemployed for longer.
These nuances do not indicate a labor market in the inevitable threat, but the one that changed under the feet of the economy.
“Numbers are not terrible that allow feeding to pay attention to inflation at the moment,” said Vanden Houten. “The latest information allows the feed to breathe a little easier, although in June employment information, probably a little better in the business market looked better.”
Economic growth will be forced to significantly reduce expectations and due to Torres, to increase 50 main points to increase the 50,000 to 50,000 per month to increase the main point.
The possibilities of both of them are not possible at the moment. Investors expect growth and labor market slowly, but slowly slow down to these levels. Wall Street firms and economists have reduced their predictions for the increase and inflation, mainly by referring to tariffs. Some have revised these predictions, To further lower themThe deadline of Trump’s modest tariff.
He said that the markets stopped in the event of a renewal of Trump’s tariff hurricanes. Markets appear to be low forecasts of a large number of priced Wall Street for more than 2025. In fact, the markets announced a number of new and perhaps a number of final tariffs on S & P 500.
