Trump always chickens to foreign policy

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Donald Trump and my FT colleague Robert Armstrong, many investors in the world are now talking about Taco trade.

Robert I had to “Trump Always Chickens” (Taco). Sample, the US president promised to apply mass fares to the selected target. However, later tariffs will often cut or delay the tariffs in response to the negative reaction from the markets.

So far, this happened in Canada and Mexico, then majority of mankind (and some penguins) and then “mutually tariffs”. A weekend lasted a weekend to raise tariffs to the EU, lasted up to 50 percent. So – Taco.

Taco’s statement was taken to Trump last week. He did not amaze him and called it “nasty question.”

All the nastici, perhaps, because of the precise. In fact, “Taco” is not just a useful heurist for investors. It also turns out to be the key to Trump’s analysis Foreign policy.

Jeremy Shapiro of the Council of Foreign Relations of the Council of Europe recently pointed out paperTrump enjoys giving bloodshed threats to apply power. But he is very rarely followed.

In the first period of Office Trump Undoubtedly, North Korea threatened to “fire and angry”, as well as the opportunity to delete “on earth” “on earth” for 10 days.

And what happened? He entered talks about the nuclear program with North Korea. When negotiations failed, they were watched with amnesia, not fire and anger. North Korea has accelerated the nuclear weapon program in the last five years. Trump seems to have forgotten the problem.

As for Afghanistan, Trump agreed to bring us out of the country without providing no true concessions from the Taliban – the construction of a scene for the fall in Bayden administration.

The most surprising power was used in Trump’s first period killing In January 2020, Iran’s Head of Gulsem Soleimani. However, Trump, only because of receiving the founders of the risk of Iran’s revenge

Looking at the two cycles of Trump, Shapiro finds that he threatened to use force to date – but it’s twice that he really follows twice. 25 The use of actual force is limited to terrorist groups such as ISIS or al-Qaeda. But twice was before the president’s threat.

It gives a clear result to eliminate the record: “Trump causes a lot like a friendly and external playground, afraid to use force in any situation in any situation.

It is instructive to apply the Taco principle to today’s foreign policy crises. Trump allowed Iran attacks, if the existing negotiations are over to limit the nuclear program to restrict the nuclear program. However, the record shows that any of the happening in the negotiations is likely to be very reluctant to hit Iran.

As for Ukraine, Trump is likely to be more careful than the Biden’s leadership, which is likely to risk escalation with Russia. Despite being last week warning US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth can be “inevitable” from a Chinese attack on Taiwan – it is unlikely to take the risk of war on Taiwan.

Mexican drug cartels are talking about the use of US servicemen to go after the US military. However, if the cartels are a risk that the US can take back the US territory, it may be careful not to fool them.

The places that need to be worried are those who are not likely to be sensible or return. Greenland can fall into that category – it shows that the Denmark and EU will not know if it will be a price to pay if it moves on the island.

Of course, Trump is not unique in whether you want to use power. Both Joe Biden and Barack Obama were also careful not to fight US soldiers. Like Trump, the presidents, like the presidents, were formed with bitter experiences of Iraq and Afghan wars.

Those who separate the Trump from each other are not to go to war – but striking boy rhetoric and surprisingly contrast between its real world. The current President, Teddy Roosevelt turned the famous maximum of a maximum of a soft and large stick. Trump prefers to scream loudly while the pen brand is.

However, there is an open problem in doing most of the Taco principle. Now he pointed out to him, Trump went to try to demonstrate that he was a really hard man. One day after question “Taco”, Trump increased the tariff for the American foreign steel area by 50 percent.

Rarely is a good idea to mock a bully. The countries suspecting the violent threats of Trump will not have much to do much, and will probably do this to keep this idea.

gideon.rachman@ft.com