Trump’s ‘punishment’ Chinese tariffs could end trade between the two largest economies in the world, and it would be painful, changeable and dangerous

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Trade between the two largest economies in the world – a connection World economy For two decades About Life Support. US Tariffs in the United States Standing 145% nowOpen now the US tariffs in the United States 125% Standing. And it is simply the basis, including additional tariffs Special goods like steel (In case of US) or Agricultural products (In the case of Chinese).

“Tariff rates are now high enough to ban the most bilateral trade in Yeling tan, a professor of state policy at Oxford University.

Even with these high tariffs of Beijing, the US goods do not have a chance. “If the United States further increases tariffs on Chinese exports, this will take into account such events in China, given that the American goods under the export tariffs are no longer sold. a comment Announces 125% of the tariffs.

Tariffs are rapidly evacuating a close economic connection: China manufacturers built products from meadow chairs and Christmas decorations smartphone and semiconductorsand US consumers and businesses purchased them.

Although both Washington and Beijing are not talking about, they signaled that they are open to negotiations. Each one thinks the other should act first; On Friday morning Cnn declare The United States demanded a telephone conversation with the United States, demanded from China, and instead of this must require telephone conversations with Trump.

The United States can understand steep tariffs in China. Friday, White House free Some people, including electronic goods, such as smartphones, laptops and computer processors from US tariffs.

Tariffs and trade

The United States imported $ 438 billion worth of goods worth $ 438 billion in 2024, China-related export exports worth $ 143.5 billion Information from the US Census Bureau.

145% tariff on Trump’s Chinese imports is only the basis. There is also 25% Tariffs Imports of steel and aluminum, and threat In any country that uses Venezuelan oil, 25% of the tariffs, a bunch of porcelain. And then all have previously tariffs Previous controls were shot: Chinese household appliances, solar panels and houses.

Beijing also hit Additional tariffs In US goods such as heavy machinery, oil, gas and agricultural products. It also applies a number of other tariff barriers; For example, Chinese officials said they want to Reduce the number of US movies Approved for imaging in China.

The current situation is 145% of the tariffs in China, both western and Chinese companies will probably speed up the driver to build production centers outside of China in countries such as Vietnam, India and Mexico.

Problem, Trump’s Trade Waleworking is a desire to open “China plus one“Strategy. Trump’s” Freedom Day “tariffs now High tariffs About countries such as Vietnamese and Cambodia attracting investment in China. Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navarro officials like Want governments Targeting Chinese trade as a condition of reducing tariffs.

Vietnam offers to collapse in Chinese goods throughout the Tariff Negotiations with the United States. Reuters report A state document and an unnamed source;

Then Trump is not able to reach an agreement with trade partners and returns “Freedom Day” tariffs. “The factories, which are already transitioning to connectors, will probably allow production to increase the break, but ‘plus a’ plus a few tariffs in the country can be less new,” he said.

China’s steep tariffs also encourage US companies to export their supply chains to the world’s second largest economy. China Semicecoral Association on Friday confirmed Those companies did not need to pay the US chips and chipming equipment in the third place.

China holds

Trump officials claim that the Chinese economy rely on the US consumer is more sensitive to commercial war than the United States. If the US does not sell, China will sell and the economy will be collapsed.

White House also insists Trump’s tariff break deliberately strategy To isolate the porcelain while negotiating the rest of the world. “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told journalists on Wednesday that he even passed his bad position,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; It also offers US and its allies can work together to put pressure on China on trade.

In fact, China, as in the first period of the first Trump leadership, is less than in the United States. Fewer than 15% of China’s exports are directly from the United States, about 19% in 2018. Beijing has also raised alternative sources for importing the United States for agricultural products. There are Australia’s beef exports in the past two months 40% already year-year.

“There are China’s options,” Brown says China’s largest trading partner is now Southeast Asia. “It doesn’t look at us once in these ways.”

To be clear, economists expect to expect China to receive economic hits with the crazial tariffs and banks Citi and Golden man sachs To cut 2025 GDP forecasts for the second largest economy in the world.

However, Beijing has a bold position in the fight against the United States and will tell Chinese words “Fight to the end“If the United States continues in the trade war.

Powered aside, Beijing can be a reliable position than the US Trump’s commercial war Stock market markets crashed, The hiking garden is comingand Immerse the US Dollars-That before Inflation effects strainfully hit the tariffs.

Dexter Roberts, the head of the Atlantic Council in the Global Chinese Hub, “People in China are really feeling that they can really feel bitterly,” they touch a Chinese phrase. ” I think I believe that whenever someone will blink, it will be the United States “

Roberts adds that at least the first trade war from Beijing did not end. Biden management kept Trump’s tariffs for Chinese goods previously. Biden also applied its own tariffs as 100% tariff in China EVS, and maybe such as the technological sector of Beijing, such as the technological sector of Beijing Exports the US chip bans.

This means that Beijing has been on the “Trade War” since 2016. China has established trade relations with other markets, replacing US goods and found new sources to invest in their technology companies. “China has been preparing for a world for less than few years in the US market,” he said.

A commercial war can accelerate other priorities of Beijing, while painful. “In a single way, Beijing is compatible with long-term targets that removed the economies of West and exports,” Roberts said.

Again, China can easily change export markets to other areas such as Europe, Middle East or Southeast Asia. For one – these areas – even developed markets such as Europe – really do not have the potential to consume as an American. Then there is the risk of coup. “These countries face the increase in Chinese imports redirected from the US market,” he said.

No deals or deals?

Economists would be extremely painful for both countries between the United States and China. More than 100% tariffs are “completely penalty”, IAI Osgood, who is a professor of international relations at the University of Michigan, he said. “There are many enterprises in the United States, maybe it could not survive. Even large retailers are going to fight only.”

This will try to find a way to find a way to find a few ways to measure two sides back or in the United States in a slightly so large. After that, the tariffs are likely to return to 2024 before the level before 2018. Osgood thinks that tariffs can be returned to the “sensitive” level relatively, maybe 15% and 30%.

Again, the rapid increase in the rapid growth of the US-China trade war causes a concern: how does the world look like when the two largest economies rejected each other?

A world of Beijing and Washington is a world where a world can be dangerous. Due to the presence of companies and foreigners, the business relations say really “temperamental influence”, Roberts says it sometimes ends. “If you have increasingly isolated and do not have business relations … the probability of conflict is definitely.”

“At the end of the day, the fate of the two giant economies will approach each other. The collapse of bilateral trade will damage enterprises and consumers in both countries,” he said.

“It will be a more variable world.”

This story was first displayed Fortune.com

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