What’s next for UK’s welfare after the starmer’s u-turn?

Unlock the editor’s digestion free

FT editor Roula Khalaf, chooses his favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had to make several discounts on controversial welfare reforms with the attempt to leave a great rebellion by labor deputies.

But it’s a longer period of how the state will be Britain’s Bare dish can pay the bill The rest, the bidders began to rise significantly over the next 10 years with the number of benefits of disability.

How big is the problem?

The reforms spent on the benefits of health and disability during the settlement are expected to reach £ 2029-30.

These expenses have been exponentially rose since the pandemic, an increase of £ 16 billion between 2019 and last year.

Without reforms, thinking tank calculations are expected to increase a similar dimensional increase in the end of the Assembly.

At the same time, the office in the national statistics estimates that 2.8 million people, which are a long-term health condition that prevents Britain’s operation.

The changes in the Prosperity Bill are designed to save almost 5.5 billion pounds in 2029-30, but the concessions on Friday are only $ 3 billion.

What is the stranger to starmer?

In March, Starmer announced his plans to tighten the compatibility for disability benefits known as “payments for personal independence.”

On Friday, the government said the rules for the current bidders will not implement more harsh assessment rules for the bidders only in November 2026.

This is a concession for about 370,000 additional mankeys, up to 370,000 additional people, up to £ 2029-30, №, 9-30 pounds.

This may avoid a income shock that trusts in the benefits of any family, but it can be unfairly seen for the applicants who are equally deserving the patient after the cutting date. The campaigns were blamed on Friday to create a two-step system.

The government also promised to freeze the health element of the universal loan – the bidders are treated as patient, until the 2029-30s.

MPs will now be paid in accordance with this for the existing bidders now. The payment will be reduced twice and then it will be freezed for new bidders.

Discounts have already been made to tighten the criteria in debt.

The ministers said that in November 2026, the bidders need to collect at least four points in at least one category to buy at least one type of pipe. The deputies were informed about this.

The starmer also brought forward 1 billion pound employment support To convince MPs to support welfare reforms to this year.

What happens next?

This week, its turn, according to the director of the Dosier, IFS, in the Prosperity bill, the government “now makes it really just a small gear”.

“The package, just as they stopped a few days ago, just slowed up and return, these trends of these trends,” he said.

Of course, none of the available options are easy here. In a very large number of people in very large numbers to save a great amount in the next few years, more than a large number of people more than a relatively short period. ”

The existing bidders were given concessions, specialists managed to start rejecting the government’s future prosperity bill.

“Today, the concessions do not change their long-term policy, Mike Brewer, deputy executive and the head of the chief economist thinks.” At some point everyone will be a new bidder. . . When they first publish the green paper, they are just a little more slowly. “

Added that the most important long-term change, which will not be in the bill next week, can be redesigned the compatibility test for the pipe. “Next week, the events will slow down the increase in disability benefits, but the test of the test can be more effective.”