Who does Trump manage for?


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Which bono Trump? Whose interest does it serve? Like Ivan Krastev notedOf course, Grotesque serves in their interests. What about other people? We know Usaid’s cruel closure Not something for the poor outside. Does he show up for the ordinary Americans who vote for him? This A great beautiful law action (Obbba) shows the answer to the congress and the answer is “no”. This is a strong example “Pluto-popularity“(” Plutocratic populism “), as I first call in 2006. The richest gojo takes the most; and the poor are poor; and the financial deficit remains large.

Tariffs are a sales tax for imported goods, which will increase the prices of internal substitutes. Extensive and large, poor people spend a higher rate of income than richer people who have a higher rate of services or more. So the tariffs are regressive, like Kimberly Clausing and Mary cute Institute of dispute of the International Institute of Economics. This Trump can be part of why you love them. Meanwhile, his tax reduction is mainly going to the wealthy.

Yale Budget Laboratory evaluated the impact of tariffs as the House of 2025 and Obbba, which dated June 1, 2025. Of course, the last one can change. However, it is amazing that this is not the acceptance of the House of Representatives. The combination of tariffs and tariffs “combination of tariff” reduces taxes and transfer revenues under 80 percent of US households. (See diagrams.)

In addition, according to the Yale Budget Laboratory, the conventional, Obbba will cost $ 2.4 million in writing (4-month temporary provisions) will earn $ 2.4 billion from June 1. ” This decision took place (I will not raise the tariffs so much money), slander and a favorite result “

Instead of Paul Krugman understands “There is a very woven landscape intentive. However, this law is so ruthlessly regressive, and even shocked me.” I think I’m so ashamed. According to a letter The non-guest Congress may start rising from the budget management (CBO), the number of health insured people, as a result of proposed changes, and in the Obbba and in another place by 2034. Also there is Cutting food stamps. For billionaires, there can be no mistake to report many to reduce large taxes.

The linear table of the Federal debt of GDP indicating the US federal government's debt is projected to rise to an indefinite future

If we have no effect on the influence of the US economic growth, the financial situation of tariffs seems to be a continuation of the net effect and Obbba’s previous financial trends. Thus, the lack of financial shortages will remain large and the debt will increase compared to GDP. In Long-term budget Outlook 2025-55CBO, this year in 2035, this year he predicted to increase from 100% to 118 percent of the federal debt to the GDP this year.

In his book How to go to countries: Great PeriodBridgewater’s Ray Dalio claims that the GDP should be 3-4 percent to stabilize the debt rate of the cution. Is such an adjustment right now? Honest answer This should be no one knows. The United States is the world’s largest and consistent dynamic economy and provides a spare currency in the world. It gives a great room for maneuver. But nothing lasts forever. If people lose confidence in the United States, they may have to walk on debt on more unfavorable terms. As a result, most of it is short and therefore with interest rates that determine the federal reserves.

The Linear Schedule of Federal Federal Features,% of the GDP specified in time, interest payments are becoming increased share of financial shortages

The latter would be under pressure to keep interest rates down. The impact of the financial repression of this debt monetization can be stabilized. Like the mit Ruder Dornbusch Once “In the economy, it will happen more than you think they will have work and then it’s faster than you think.” So the sensible choice is to change the course before it’s too late. This means that if you have decided to carry out a bitter trade war from all your creditors, it makes sense: Trump’s rigid experience will definitely change the perception of the United States.

The linear schedule of the bond productivity does not provide space for continuous primary financial shortages (not cut before interest payments)

In general, as a form of politics, populists should be defined as a policy form. “Populist leaders and economics”Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick and Christoph Trebesches, both right-left, reached two outcomes: Both sets inclined to cause democracy to cause democracy; Second, their attacks on the carelessness, nationalism and institutions tend to apply great economic costs.

In the United States, both sides are now effectively in order to agree to the importance of fiscal caution. Undoubtedly, the Democrats began to see less benefit now, because it often appointed a stage for regressive tax reduction. After that, a good guess will continue to increase the US debt. Dalio’s warnings later set. As a deceased Herbert Stein He once said, “If something can’t last forever, stop.” Questions are only when and how painful.

martin.wolf@ft.com

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