Why Tehran will not block the Strait of Hormuz

As tensions increase after Israel’s holiday PusFear, Tehran has revived one of the most vital oil arteries in the world – he can retaliate one of the Strait of Hormuz.

Hormuz Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arab Sea, sees about 20 million barrels a day The global oil and oil products are accounted for about five in about five. Would be ripple any movement to close it through energy markets.

However, market watchers believe that a full-scale violation of global fat flow by closing the water path and can be physically impossible.

Considering how Iran does not target Iran’s oil infrastructure, there is no “net allowance through the transversal oil infrastructure, which has not been targeted by Iranian oil infrastructure, Transversal Consulting President Ellen Wald said. He added that such actions would be more revenge, he said.

It can also be withdrawn from the largest oil customer in Iran’s largest oil client in oil conclusion: China.

“China does not want the oil flow from the Persian Gulf to be violated in any way, and China does not want to increase oil prices. Thus, they will bring the full weight of economic forces until Iran,” he said.

While China The number one importer of Iranian oilreported to accounting Over three-quarters of oil exports. The world’s second largest economy The largest trading partner of Iran.

“Friends will suffer more than enemies … So it is very difficult to see what happened,” he said.

“First, it does not show interest to what they can cause problems for those who will suffer.”

Iran in 2018 Hormuz threatened to close his throat Tensions were spread after the United States refused to take care of its nuclear deals and sanctions. Earlier, other great danger in 2011 and 2012, Iranian officials, including Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, including Warned the potential closure if the West is further sanctioned About its oil exports over the nuclear program.

Hormuz Strait, 35 to 60 miles (55 to 95 kilometers), Combines Persian Gulf and Arab Sea.

The idea of ​​closinging the water path was a recurring rhetorical tool, but never moved, it is simply not possible with analysts.

“Let’s be realistic about the Strait of Hormuz. The majority in Iran is not in Iran. They are quite wide that the Iranians cannot close it,” he said.

Similarly, the Wald of Transversal Consulting noted that although many ships passed Iranian waters, the ships can still overcome alternative ways through the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“Any siege of the Strait of Hormuz will have something to say for the” recent vehicle “choice for Iran and the United States and Iran,” he said.

RBC Capital markets’ Helima Croft, although some violations, said that a full-scale siege is impossible.

“Taking into account the existence of Iran’s fifth fleet in Bahrain, the fifth fleet of the United States, Iran’s fifth fleet, Iran, a global commodity strategy and head of the Mena Research in the RBC.

There is US President Trump Warned of possible military action If negotiations with Iran and Iran are declining on its nuclear program, these threats are designed to raise the share of US-Iran talks or simply increase pressure on the negotiating table, Dhar.

Israel has implemented an air wave in Iran on Friday morning, and the attacks claimed that the attacks were directed to the facilities related to the nuclear program.

According to the Iranian state media, the holidays were killed by the Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Husseini Bagheri, along with the Commander-in-Islamic Revolutionary Guards.

Although the throat is unlikely to be closing, the growing conflict has taken a very weak probability.

“It is a type of scenario to” tie the throat), although we are in extreme condition, “he said.

“So I do not completely put this option from the table. We must take this into account.”

Raw futures Jumped up to 13% After Israel’s air attacks against Iran on Friday. Global assessment Brent Futures was $ 73.88 per barrel from Singapore Time to $ 43.88 PM USA West Texas Ara Barrel received a 6.7% height worth $ 72.57.